Closed-form approximation to annual failure probabilities

Ramesh Kumar, Paolo Gardoni

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Accurate and time-efficient methods for computing annual failure probabilities are important for effective implementation of performance-based and reliability-based optimal design. This work provides a general approximate closed-form solution to compute the annual failure probability of components or systems. We show an application of the proposed approach to an example elasto-plastic SDOF system and compare the solution with those obtained numerically and using an alternative approximate closed-form solution currently available in the literature. We find that the proposed approximate closed-form performs better than the one in particular at low ductility levels. The proposed solution also gives insights into the physical phenomena by expressing failure probability in the terms of key parameters.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationVulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk
Subtitle of host publicationAnalysis, Modeling, and Management - Proceedings of the ICVRAM 2011 and ISUMA 2011 Conferences
Pages450-457
Number of pages8
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 13 2011
Externally publishedYes
EventInternational Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2011 and the International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2011 - Hyattsville, MD, United States
Duration: Apr 11 2011Apr 13 2011

Publication series

NameVulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Analysis, Modeling, and Management - Proceedings of the ICVRAM 2011 and ISUMA 2011 Conferences

Other

OtherInternational Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2011 and the International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2011
CountryUnited States
CityHyattsville, MD
Period4/11/114/13/11

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Closed-form approximation to annual failure probabilities'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

  • Cite this

    Kumar, R., & Gardoni, P. (2011). Closed-form approximation to annual failure probabilities. In Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Analysis, Modeling, and Management - Proceedings of the ICVRAM 2011 and ISUMA 2011 Conferences (pp. 450-457). (Vulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Analysis, Modeling, and Management - Proceedings of the ICVRAM 2011 and ISUMA 2011 Conferences). https://doi.org/10.1061/41170(400)55