### Abstract

Engineers must deal with risks and uncertainties as a part of their professional work and, in particular, uncertainties are inherent to engineering models. Models play a central role in engineering. Models often represent an abstract and idealized version of the mathematical properties of a target. Using models, engineers can investigate and acquire understanding of how an object or phenomenon will perform under specified conditions. This paper defines the different stages of the modeling process in engineering, classifies the various sources of uncertainty that arise in the each stage, and discusses the categories into which these uncertainties fall. The paper then considers the way uncertainty and modeling are approached in science and the criteria for evaluating scientific hypotheses, in order to highlight the very different criteria appropriate for the development of models and the treatment of the inherent uncertainties in engineering. Finally, the paper puts forward nine guidelines for the treatment of uncertainty in engineering modeling.

Original language | English (US) |
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Title of host publication | Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering -Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering |

Pages | 184-192 |

Number of pages | 9 |

State | Published - Dec 1 2011 |

Externally published | Yes |

Event | 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP - Zurich, Switzerland Duration: Aug 1 2011 → Aug 4 2011 |

### Publication series

Name | Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering -Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering |
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### Other

Other | 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP |
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Country | Switzerland |

City | Zurich |

Period | 8/1/11 → 8/4/11 |

### Fingerprint

### ASJC Scopus subject areas

- Civil and Structural Engineering
- Statistics and Probability

### Cite this

*Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering -Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering*(pp. 184-192). (Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering -Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering).

**Classification and moral evaluation of uncertainties in engineering modeling.** / Murphy, C.; Harris, Charles E.; Gardoni, P.

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

*Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering -Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering.*Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering -Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, pp. 184-192, 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP, Zurich, Switzerland, 8/1/11.

}

TY - GEN

T1 - Classification and moral evaluation of uncertainties in engineering modeling

AU - Murphy, C.

AU - Harris, Charles E.

AU - Gardoni, P.

PY - 2011/12/1

Y1 - 2011/12/1

N2 - Engineers must deal with risks and uncertainties as a part of their professional work and, in particular, uncertainties are inherent to engineering models. Models play a central role in engineering. Models often represent an abstract and idealized version of the mathematical properties of a target. Using models, engineers can investigate and acquire understanding of how an object or phenomenon will perform under specified conditions. This paper defines the different stages of the modeling process in engineering, classifies the various sources of uncertainty that arise in the each stage, and discusses the categories into which these uncertainties fall. The paper then considers the way uncertainty and modeling are approached in science and the criteria for evaluating scientific hypotheses, in order to highlight the very different criteria appropriate for the development of models and the treatment of the inherent uncertainties in engineering. Finally, the paper puts forward nine guidelines for the treatment of uncertainty in engineering modeling.

AB - Engineers must deal with risks and uncertainties as a part of their professional work and, in particular, uncertainties are inherent to engineering models. Models play a central role in engineering. Models often represent an abstract and idealized version of the mathematical properties of a target. Using models, engineers can investigate and acquire understanding of how an object or phenomenon will perform under specified conditions. This paper defines the different stages of the modeling process in engineering, classifies the various sources of uncertainty that arise in the each stage, and discusses the categories into which these uncertainties fall. The paper then considers the way uncertainty and modeling are approached in science and the criteria for evaluating scientific hypotheses, in order to highlight the very different criteria appropriate for the development of models and the treatment of the inherent uncertainties in engineering. Finally, the paper puts forward nine guidelines for the treatment of uncertainty in engineering modeling.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84856756192&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84856756192&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:84856756192

SN - 9780415669863

T3 - Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering -Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering

SP - 184

EP - 192

BT - Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering -Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering

ER -