Classification and moral evaluation of uncertainties in engineering modeling

C. Murphy, Charles E. Harris, P. Gardoni

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Engineers must deal with risks and uncertainties as a part of their professional work and, in particular, uncertainties are inherent to engineering models. Models play a central role in engineering. Models often represent an abstract and idealized version of the mathematical properties of a target. Using models, engineers can investigate and acquire understanding of how an object or phenomenon will perform under specified conditions. This paper defines the different stages of the modeling process in engineering, classifies the various sources of uncertainty that arise in the each stage, and discusses the categories into which these uncertainties fall. The paper then considers the way uncertainty and modeling are approached in science and the criteria for evaluating scientific hypotheses, in order to highlight the very different criteria appropriate for the development of models and the treatment of the inherent uncertainties in engineering. Finally, the paper puts forward nine guidelines for the treatment of uncertainty in engineering modeling.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationApplications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering -Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering
Pages184-192
Number of pages9
StatePublished - 2011
Externally publishedYes
Event11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP - Zurich, Switzerland
Duration: Aug 1 2011Aug 4 2011

Publication series

NameApplications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering -Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering

Other

Other11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP
CountrySwitzerland
CityZurich
Period8/1/118/4/11

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Statistics and Probability

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Classification and moral evaluation of uncertainties in engineering modeling'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

  • Cite this

    Murphy, C., Harris, C. E., & Gardoni, P. (2011). Classification and moral evaluation of uncertainties in engineering modeling. In Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering -Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (pp. 184-192). (Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering -Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering).