Characterizing the water extremes of the new century in the US South-West: A comprehensive assessment from state-of-the-art climate model projections

Aleix Serrat-Capdevila, Juan B. Valdes, Francina Dominguez, Seshadri Rajagopal

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

Abstract

The impact of climate change scenarios in the hydrology of the Verde River basin (Arizona) is analyzed using an ensemble of downscaled climate model results, SPI analysis, and two hydrologic models of different complexity. To assess model uncertainty, 47 ensemble members combining simulations from 16 global climate models and 3 emission scenarios were used to provide an uncertainty envelope in the hydrologic variables. The analysis shows that simple lumped models and more complex distributed runoff models can yield similar results. Results show that under all scenarios, the distribution functions of hydrologic states will shift towards lower values and droughts will progressively become more frequent, longer and more intense.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationWater Management and Climate Change
Subtitle of host publicationDealing with Uncertainties
PublisherTaylor and Francis Inc.
Pages32-51
Number of pages20
ISBN (Electronic)9781317611264
ISBN (Print)9781138809161
StatePublished - Apr 14 2016
Externally publishedYes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics, Econometrics and Finance(all)
  • Business, Management and Accounting(all)

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    Serrat-Capdevila, A., Valdes, J. B., Dominguez, F., & Rajagopal, S. (2016). Characterizing the water extremes of the new century in the US South-West: A comprehensive assessment from state-of-the-art climate model projections. In Water Management and Climate Change: Dealing with Uncertainties (pp. 32-51). Taylor and Francis Inc..