TY - JOUR
T1 - CERESMIP
T2 - a climate modeling protocol to investigate recent trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance
AU - Schmidt, Gavin A.
AU - Andrews, Timothy
AU - Bauer, Susanne E.
AU - Durack, Paul J.
AU - Loeb, Norman G.
AU - Ramaswamy, V.
AU - Arnold, Nathan P.
AU - Bosilovich, Michael G.
AU - Cole, Jason
AU - Horowitz, Larry W.
AU - Johnson, Gregory C.
AU - Lyman, John M.
AU - Medeiros, Brian
AU - Michibata, Takuro
AU - Olonscheck, Dirk
AU - Paynter, David
AU - Raghuraman, Shiv Priyam
AU - Schulz, Michael
AU - Takasuka, Daisuke
AU - Tallapragada, Vijay
AU - Taylor, Patrick C.
AU - Ziehn, Tilo
N1 - BM acknowledges support by the U.S. Department of Energy under Award Number DE-SC0022070 and National Science Foundation (NSF) IA 1947282, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, which is a major facility sponsored by the NSF under Cooperative Agreement No. 1852977, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under award NA20OAR4310392. We also thank Leo Donner, Vaishali Naik, Fabien Paulot and two reviewers for comments on the draft paper.
Climate modeling at GISS was supported by the NASA Modeling, Analysis and Prediction program and simulations are made possible by the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS). TA was supported by both the Met Office Hadley Center Climate Programme funded by BEIS and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement 820829. TM was also supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI (Grant JP19H05669), the Advanced Studies of Climate Change Projection (SENTAN) of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (Grant JPMXD0722680395), the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (Grant JPMEERF21S12004) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency Provided by the Ministry of Environment of Japan, and the JST FOREST Program (Grant JPMJFR206Y).
PY - 2023
Y1 - 2023
N2 - The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has now produced over two decades of observed data on the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) and has revealed substantive trends in both the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave top-of-atmosphere radiation components. Available climate model simulations suggest that these trends are incompatible with purely internal variability, but that the full magnitude and breakdown of the trends are outside of the model ranges. Unfortunately, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6) protocol only uses observed forcings to 2014 (and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) projections thereafter), and furthermore, many of the ‘observed' drivers have been updated substantially since the CMIP6 inputs were defined. Most notably, the sea surface temperature (SST) estimates have been revised and now show up to 50% greater trends since 1979, particularly in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, estimates of short-lived aerosol and gas-phase emissions have been substantially updated. These revisions will likely have material impacts on the model-simulated EEI. We therefore propose a new, relatively low-cost, model intercomparison, CERESMIP, that would target the CERES period (2000-present), with updated forcings to at least the end of 2021. The focus will be on atmosphere-only simulations, using updated SST, forcings and emissions from 1990 to 2021. The key metrics of interest will be the EEI and atmospheric feedbacks, and so the analysis will benefit from output from satellite cloud observation simulators. The Tier 1 request would consist only of an ensemble of AMIP-style simulations, while the Tier 2 request would encompass uncertainties in the applied forcing, atmospheric composition, single and all-but-one forcing responses. We present some preliminary results and invite participation from a wide group of models.
AB - The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has now produced over two decades of observed data on the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) and has revealed substantive trends in both the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave top-of-atmosphere radiation components. Available climate model simulations suggest that these trends are incompatible with purely internal variability, but that the full magnitude and breakdown of the trends are outside of the model ranges. Unfortunately, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6) protocol only uses observed forcings to 2014 (and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) projections thereafter), and furthermore, many of the ‘observed' drivers have been updated substantially since the CMIP6 inputs were defined. Most notably, the sea surface temperature (SST) estimates have been revised and now show up to 50% greater trends since 1979, particularly in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, estimates of short-lived aerosol and gas-phase emissions have been substantially updated. These revisions will likely have material impacts on the model-simulated EEI. We therefore propose a new, relatively low-cost, model intercomparison, CERESMIP, that would target the CERES period (2000-present), with updated forcings to at least the end of 2021. The focus will be on atmosphere-only simulations, using updated SST, forcings and emissions from 1990 to 2021. The key metrics of interest will be the EEI and atmospheric feedbacks, and so the analysis will benefit from output from satellite cloud observation simulators. The Tier 1 request would consist only of an ensemble of AMIP-style simulations, while the Tier 2 request would encompass uncertainties in the applied forcing, atmospheric composition, single and all-but-one forcing responses. We present some preliminary results and invite participation from a wide group of models.
KW - aerosols
KW - AMIP
KW - climate modeling
KW - cloud feedbacks
KW - CMIP6
KW - earth's energy balance
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U2 - 10.3389/fclim.2023.1202161
DO - 10.3389/fclim.2023.1202161
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85165116321
SN - 2624-9553
VL - 5
JO - Frontiers in Climate
JF - Frontiers in Climate
M1 - 1202161
ER -