Case Study: Scenario based seismic loss estimation for concrete buildings in mid America

This paper focuses on probabilistic loss estimation of concrete buildings subject to seismic activity in the Central United States. The scenario earthquakes under consideration have three moment magnitudes, and Shelby County, Tennessee, is selected as the case study region. The buildings considered are typical reinforced concrete frame buildings and tilt-up concrete buildings in this region. Fragility curves based on recently developed demand models are used to represent the seismic vulnerability of the buildings. The structural damage of the selected buildings is assessed with a probabilistic approach that uses empirical structural damage factors and accounts for the prevailing uncertainties. Finally, corresponding losses for the buildings are estimated using a probabilistic framework. Through this approach, critical structures that might be expected to have extensive damage are identified. Additionally, the result of the scenario-based approach provides decision makers with information needed to prioritize mitigation options for high risk structures due to potential earthquakes.