Biased Estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response Derived From Historical CMIP6 Simulations

Yue Dong, Kyle C. Armour, Cristian Proistosescu, Timothy Andrews, David S. Battisti, Piers M. Forster, David Paynter, Christopher J. Smith, Hideo Shiogama

Research output: Contribution to journalLetterpeer-review

Abstract

This study assesses the effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) and transient climate response (TCR) derived from global energy budget constraints within historical simulations of eight CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs). These calculations are enabled by use of the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) simulations, which permit accurate quantification of the radiative forcing. Long-term historical energy budget constraints generally underestimate EffCS from CO2 quadrupling and TCR from CO2 ramping, owing to changes in radiative feedbacks and changes in ocean heat uptake efficiency. Atmospheric GCMs forced by observed warming patterns produce lower values of EffCS that are more in line with those inferred from observed historical energy budget changes. The differences in the EffCS estimates from historical energy budget constraints of models and observations are traced to discrepancies between modeled and observed historical surface warming patterns.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numbere2021GL095778
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume48
Issue number24
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 28 2021

Keywords

  • Climate sensitivity
  • energy budget constraints
  • pattern effect
  • radiative feedbacks
  • transient climate response

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geophysics
  • General Earth and Planetary Sciences

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Biased Estimates of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response Derived From Historical CMIP6 Simulations'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this