Bayesian updating of seismic demand models and fragility estimates for reinforced concrete bridges with two-column bents

Jinquan Zhong, Paolo Gardoni, David Rosowsky

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Probabilistic models have been developed in a previous study by the authors to estimate the seismic deformation demands on structural components of reinforced concrete (RC) bridges with two-column bents. However, such models should be updated to reflect the latest laboratory of field data. Using a Bayesian approach, this article updates a currently available probabilistic model for the deformation demands of columns in bridges with two-column RC bents. The updated model incorporates information from newly available experimental data from shake table tests conducted based on a record of the 1994 Northridge Earthquake for a structural system with three bents with two columns per bent. The updated model is more accurate than the previous one in predicting the deformation demand of bridges with two-column RC bents and reduces the statistical uncertainty due to the addition of new data. As an application, fragility estimates for an example bridge are computed using the updated model both at the component (column) and system (bridge) levels.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)716-735
Number of pages20
JournalJournal of Earthquake Engineering
Volume13
Issue number5
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 2009
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Bayesian inference
  • Bridges
  • Deformation demand
  • Experimental data
  • Fragility
  • Model error
  • Model updating
  • Parameter estimation
  • Probabilistic models
  • Reinforced concrete
  • Uncertainty analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

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