Bayesian calibration of ILLI-THERM for temperature prediction within airfield concrete pavement

Osman Erman Gungor, Imad L. Al-Qadi, Navneet Garg

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution


Mechanistic models (e.g., finite-element analysis, discrete-element analysis) are commonly used techniques to understand the behavior of materials. Although these models have been successfully utilized to simulate engineering problems, their outputs may not match the field data because of inherent uncertainties. One method to improve the accuracy of mechanistic models is calibration. In this paper, Bayesian calibration framework is applied to the mechanistic model ILLI-THERM, which uses the Enhanced Integrated Climatic Model to predict temperature profile within a pavement. The temperature data used for the calibration were collected by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for a concrete taxiway at John F. Kennedy airport in New York, US. The primary objectives of this project were to study curling in concrete slabs (wet-freeze climatic region) and measure total strain and load-induced strain in slabs under multi-gear aircraft such as A-380, B-777, B-747. This paper focuses on material-related uncertainties. Hence, ILLI-THERM was calibrated for material characterization parameters only. Adaptive Monte Carlo Markov Chain was used to generate samples for estimating posterior distributions. The calibration resulted in improving the prediction performance of ILLI-THERM; root mean square error (RMSE) is reduced by 19%. Furthermore, the posterior distribution resultant from the Bayesian calibration indicated the significance of each material properties on temperature distribution within the pavement.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationAccelerated Pavement Testing to Transport Infrastructure Innovation - Proceedings of 6th APT Conference
EditorsArmelle Chabot, Pierre Hornych, John Harvey, Luis Guillermo Loria-Salazar
Number of pages10
ISBN (Print)9783030552350
StatePublished - 2020
Event6th International Conference on Accelerated Pavement Testing, APT 2021 - Nantes, France
Duration: Sep 27 2021Sep 29 2021

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Civil Engineering
Volume96 LNCE
ISSN (Print)2366-2557
ISSN (Electronic)2366-2565


Conference6th International Conference on Accelerated Pavement Testing, APT 2021


  • Airfield concrete pavement
  • Bayesian calibration
  • Enhanced Integrated Climatic Model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering


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