Bankers' forecasts of farmland values: A qualitative and quantitative evaluation

Todd H. Kuethe, Todd Hubbs

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


This study evaluates the farmland price forecasts provided by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's Land Values and Credit Conditions Survey from 1991: quarter 1 (Q1) through 2016: Q1. Prior studies have demonstrated that similar surveys of agricultural bankers provide accurate predictions of the direction of future farm real estate values through qualitative forecast evaluation. This study extends the existing knowledge base by converting the qualitative responses to quantitative expectations. The quantified expectations are then subjected to additional forecast optimality tests, which suggest that the forecasts are unbiased but inefficient.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)617-633
Number of pages17
JournalJournal of Agricultural and Applied Economics
Issue number4
StatePublished - Nov 1 2017


  • Farmland values
  • Forecast evaluation
  • Survey quantification

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous)
  • Economics and Econometrics


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