Avoiding mortality: timing prescribed burns in ornate box turtle habitat

Fire is a vital management tool for maintaining prairie ecosystems. Prescribed burns control invasive species, regulate succession, stimulate plant growth, and are a cheap and effective method for removing excess biomass; however, fire can also inadvertently cause wildlife mortality, placing land managers in a challenging situation. Turtles are especially at risk of mortality from fire because of their low mobility and population sensitivity to reductions in adult survival. We studied ornate box turtles (Terrapene ornata) at 3 sites in Illinois, USA, from 2019–2022 to determine the best predictors of above-ground activity so land managers can conduct prescribed burns when turtles are underground. We used turtle shell temperature, air temperature, soil temperature, and precipitation data to develop a predictive model of above-ground activity. The best model for predicting above-ground activity included an interaction between day of year and current air temperature. Earlier in spring and later in fall, above-ground activity is more likely at higher air temperatures compared to later in spring and earlier in fall when the same likelihood of above-ground activity is predicted at lower air temperatures. In spring, we recommend burning in Illinois ornate box turtle habitat before 1 April when air temperature is <10°C and in fall after 1 November when air temperature is <15°C. Above these temperature thresholds, there is a >5% likelihood that turtles in northern populations are above ground.