TY - JOUR
T1 - Assessment of climatic parameters for future climate change in a major agricultural state in India
AU - Jha, Ranjeet Kumar
AU - Kalita, Prasanta K.
AU - Cooke, Richard A.
N1 - Funding Information:
This research was partly funded by the University of Illinois at Urbana-Cham-paign, and USDA-NIFA.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
PY - 2021/7
Y1 - 2021/7
N2 - The change in future climate will have a prominent impact on crop production and water requirement. Crop production is directly related to climatic variables. Temperature, solar radiation, wind, precipitation, CO2 concentration and other climatic variables dictate crop yield. This study, based on long-term historical data, investigates the patterns and changes in climatic variables (pre-cipitation, temperature, and solar radiation) that would most significantly affect the future crop production in many parts of the world, and especially in India, where most farmers depend on rainfall for rice production. Statistical analyses—box and whisker plot, mean absolute error, Taylor diagram, double mass curve, Mann–Kendall trend test, and projected climate change—were used to assess the significance of the climatic factors for the purpose of agricultural modeling. Large variability in precipitation may cause the flash floods and affect the farming, and at the same time, increase in temperature from baseline period will lead to high water requirement by crops, and may cause drought if rainfall does not occur. Decrease in solar radiation will affect crop growth and development, and thus, would hamper the crop production. The results of this study would be useful in identifying the negative issues arising from climate change in future agricultural practices in Bihar, India. Furthermore, the results can also help in developing management strategies to com-bat the climate change impact on crop production.
AB - The change in future climate will have a prominent impact on crop production and water requirement. Crop production is directly related to climatic variables. Temperature, solar radiation, wind, precipitation, CO2 concentration and other climatic variables dictate crop yield. This study, based on long-term historical data, investigates the patterns and changes in climatic variables (pre-cipitation, temperature, and solar radiation) that would most significantly affect the future crop production in many parts of the world, and especially in India, where most farmers depend on rainfall for rice production. Statistical analyses—box and whisker plot, mean absolute error, Taylor diagram, double mass curve, Mann–Kendall trend test, and projected climate change—were used to assess the significance of the climatic factors for the purpose of agricultural modeling. Large variability in precipitation may cause the flash floods and affect the farming, and at the same time, increase in temperature from baseline period will lead to high water requirement by crops, and may cause drought if rainfall does not occur. Decrease in solar radiation will affect crop growth and development, and thus, would hamper the crop production. The results of this study would be useful in identifying the negative issues arising from climate change in future agricultural practices in Bihar, India. Furthermore, the results can also help in developing management strategies to com-bat the climate change impact on crop production.
KW - Climate change
KW - Climate change scenarios
KW - Crop production
KW - Global climate models
KW - Statistical analysis
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U2 - 10.3390/cli9070111
DO - 10.3390/cli9070111
M3 - Article
SN - 2225-1154
VL - 9
JO - Climate
JF - Climate
IS - 7
M1 - 111
ER -