Assessment of climate change impact on rice production over south and Southeast Asia under cmip6 climate scenarios

Rice is the most staple food resource worldwide that feeds over half of the global population. Continued population growth is projected to drive increased future demand for rice production. This study applies crop growth components of a global land surface model, ISAM, to estimate rice yield and production of two growing seasons in South and Southeast Asia. The model is driven by five CMIP6 Earth System Model (ESM) projections for three different future scenarios (SSP126, SSP37, and SSP585). We estimate the combined and separate effects of environmental drivers-changes in climate and elevated CO₂ levels on rice production. The model results show that rice production losses are between -14.5% and - 1.1 by the end of the twenty-first century. The magnitude of loss depends on the distinction in growing conditions and uncertainties in climate model scenarios. We find distinct disparities in climate impacts across 14 countries, and production losses are the worst in Pakistan, followed by Malaysia, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Vietnam. The production losses are more in the second season than in the first season due to different environmental conditions. These findings highlight the importance of simultaneously considering uncertainties in environmental conditions with cropping systems for future agricultural adaptation and mitigation strategies.