Assessment and prediction of human-elephant conflict hotspots in the human-dominated area of Rajaji-Corbett landscape, Uttarakhand, India

Understanding the dynamics that drive human-wildlife conflict and identifying potential mitigation solutions requires understanding the spatial patterns of conflict. The juxtaposition of ecological preservation and economic growth has led to increased conflicts between humans and Asian elephants Elephas maximus in the Rajaji-Corbett landscape of Uttarakhand, India, where the conversion of elephant habitat to agricultural land have increased over the last several decades. We investigated the predictors influencing household-level human-elephant conflicts (HECs) using binomial Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) collected from semi-structured questionnaire-based surveys of 266 households in the human-wildlife interface next to protected areas. Further, we modelled the landscape predictors that influence the spatial distribution of HECs by collecting occurrence data of HECs in 25 km² grid units (N = 1473 grids) using Maxent software. We discovered that HECs are directly influenced by the diversity of major and minor crops planted and the proximity to agricultural land (conflicts decreased with increasing distance from the agricultural land). We also observed that the probability of HECs decreased with increasing elevation, increase in road networks, and with increasing slope in the study area; while HECs increased with increase in human population. We discovered that nearly one-fifth of areas sampled (3606.87 km²) in the Rajaji-Corbett landscape were at high risk of HEC, especially flat, agrarian areas where most people reside. Farmers in the susceptible risk areas identified by our study could lessen the likelihood of crop damage and HEC incidents by cultivating highly profitable alternative crops that are less attractive to elephants. Additionally, implementing mobile-based Early Warning System in high HEC hotspot areas could mitigate crop raiding and potentially reduce the occurrence of HECs. The findings of our study can assist policymakers and park management in designing landscape-scale human-wildlife conflict mitigation strategies tailored to identified conflict hotspots.