Assessing the impact of deterrence on aviation checked baggage screening strategies

Sheldon H. Jacobson, Tamana Karnani, John E. Kobza

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


This paper analyses checked baggage screening strategies that incorporate the effects of deterrence on explosive detection systems (EDSs) deployed at airports. Cost models for these strategies are presented that incorporate the cost of purchasing, operating, and maintaining an EDS, the number of checked bags available to be screened, and the numbers of selectees and non-selectees checked bags actually screened over a one-year period. The model also includes the effect of deterrence on the level of threat at an airport. The cost models provide a quantitative tool to assess the strategy of 100% screening of all checked bags, as set forth by the USA Aviation and Transportation Security Act. Comparing the expected direct cost per expected prevented attack to the expected cost of an aviation terrorist incident provides an indication of the cost effectiveness of 100% checked bag screening.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1-15
Number of pages15
JournalInternational Journal of Risk Assessment and Management
Issue number1
StatePublished - 2005


  • aviation security
  • checked baggage screening
  • cost models
  • deterrence

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Business and International Management
  • Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
  • Management Science and Operations Research


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