Applying knowledge and confidence information to predict achievement in forecasting

Sarah Miller, Alex Kirlik, Nathan Hendren

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

In this paper we explore the relationship between confidence and basic knowledge information collected prior to a forecast and forecast performance (i.e. achievement). Forecasters were asked at the beginning of the 2008 Major League Baseball season to predict end-of-year performance in five statistical categories for both hitters and pitchers. At the time of the initial forecast participants were asked to rate the confidence in their forecast (0-100 scale) and were asked simple knowledge-based questions related to the player they were making forecasts about (e.g. player position and team). A regression analysis was used to compare the participant's performance on the statistical categories with their knowledge and confidence. In general there was a significant relationship between performance in the statistical categories and both knowledge and confidence when compared individually. However given both confidence and knowledge confidence provides no additional significant information.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society 55th Annual Meeting, HFES 2011
Pages370-374
Number of pages5
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 28 2011
Event55th Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting, HFES 2011 - Las Vegas, NV, United States
Duration: Sep 19 2011Sep 23 2011

Publication series

NameProceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society
ISSN (Print)1071-1813

Other

Other55th Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting, HFES 2011
CountryUnited States
CityLas Vegas, NV
Period9/19/119/23/11

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Human Factors and Ergonomics

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Applying knowledge and confidence information to predict achievement in forecasting'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

  • Cite this

    Miller, S., Kirlik, A., & Hendren, N. (2011). Applying knowledge and confidence information to predict achievement in forecasting. In Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society 55th Annual Meeting, HFES 2011 (pp. 370-374). (Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society). https://doi.org/10.1177/1071181311551076