Application of scale-recursive estimation to ensemble forecasts: A comparison of coarse and fine resolution simulations of a deep convective storm

The use of Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) in producing multiple resolution ensemble forecasts for the Fort Worth, Texas, tornadic thunderstorm case was discussed. A five-member ensemble was created using the scaled lagged average forecasting (SLAF) technique at a grid spacing ranging from coarse to fine. SLAF ensembles were found to show very promising storm scale forecasting skill. It was proposed that the scale-recursive estimation (SRE) method should be applied to merge model precipitation output by blending the coarse resolution ensembles with statistical information from the fine resolution forecast.