Analyzing the Effects of Planting Date on the Uncertainty of CERES-Maize and Its Potential to Reduce Yield Gap in Arid and Mediterranean Climates

Decision support system tools such as crop models and considering the uncertainties associated with them are important for making an informed decision to fill the yield gap in farms and increase food security. This study’s objective was to identify and quantify the degree to which crop management practices, as well as climate and soil, affected the uncertainty of total biomass, evapotranspiration, and water productivity of silage maize by using a crop model and spatiotemporal input data. Using a calibrated crop model (DSSAT) and pSIMS platform, three planting dates by considering ten ensemble weather data and three soil profile data were simulated for the time period between 2002 and 2017 with a 2 km × 2 km resolution across maize production areas with arid and Mediterranean climates in Isfahan province, Iran. Additionally, the findings were used to determine the yield gap in the studied area to identify opportunities to boost food production. Our results showed larger uncertainty in Mediterranean climates than in arid climates, and it was more affected by planting date than weather parameters and soil profile. The accuracy of total biomass prediction by using pSIMS-CERES-Maize based on the spatiotemporal input data was 1.9% compared to field experimental data in the dry climate, and the yield gap based on the comparison of modified-pSIMS-CERES-Maize and reported biomass was 6.8 to 13 tons ha⁻¹ in the arid and Mediterranean climate. Generally, all results represented the importance of using crop models and considering spatiotemporal data to increase reliability and accuracy, especially in Mediterranean climates, and their potential to increase food production in developing countries with limited water resources and poor agriculture management.