Analysis of proposed CO2 emission reductions in the context of stabilization of CO2 concentration

Haroon S. Kheshgi, Atul K. Jain, Donald J. Wuebbles

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapter

Abstract

Targets for reduction of CO2 emissions have been proposed in response to concerns over future global climate change with a focus on a 2010 target date. We develop emission scenarios over the 1990 to 2010 time-frame from available emissions data, and which encompass the range of proposed emission reductions. Emission reductions over this time frame could be viewed as steps towards mitigating impacts of climate change as well as steps towards the objective of the Framework Convention on Climate Change which is, in part, the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations. Illustrative analyses of the stabilization of CO2 concentration have defined pathways that lead to constant CO2 concentrations over time ranges of greater than a century. While the prediction of specific impacts of climate change is highly uncertain, models have been developed to project changes in global-average temperature, sea level, and CO2 concentration; these quantities are often used as indicators in place of specific impacts of climate change. In this study, we summarize projections made with our Integrated Science Assessment Model of these quantities for the range of emission scenarios, and find that the reductions considered are not expected to effect near-term (by 2010) impacts. We also find no obvious correspondence between CO2 emissions reductions by 2010 and the stabilization levels eventually arrived at by previously defined pathways of CO2 concentration.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings of the Air & Waste Management Association's Annual Meeting & Exhibition
Editors Anon
PublisherAir & Waste Management Assoc
StatePublished - Dec 1 1997
Externally publishedYes
EventProceedings of the 1997 Air & Waste Management Association's 90th Annual Meeting & Exhibition - Toronto, Can
Duration: Jun 8 1997Jun 13 1997

Publication series

NameProceedings of the Air & Waste Management Association's Annual Meeting & Exhibition

Other

OtherProceedings of the 1997 Air & Waste Management Association's 90th Annual Meeting & Exhibition
CityToronto, Can
Period6/8/976/13/97

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Engineering(all)

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