Analysis of age-at-death estimation through the use of pubic symphyseal data

Erin H. Kimmerle, Lyle W Konigsberg, Richard L. Jantz, Jose Pablo Baraybar

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

The question of whether age parameters derived from an American population will reliably estimate age-at-death for East European skeletal populations is important since the ability to accurately estimate an individual's age-at-death hinges on what standard is used. A reference sample of identified individuals with known ages-at-death from the regions of the Former Yugoslavia (n = 861) is used to determine the age structure of victims and serves as the prior in the Bayesian analysis. Pubic symphyseal data in the manners of Todd (Am J Phys Anthropol, 3 [1920], 285; Am J Phys Anthropol, 4 [1921], 1) and Suchey-Brooks (Am J Phys Anthropol, 80 [1986], 167) were collected for n = 296 Balkan males and females and for n = 2078 American males and females. An analysis of deviance is calculated using an improvement chi-square to test for population variation in the aging processes of American and East European populations using proportional odds probit regression. When males and females are treated separately, there is a significant association among females and the population (df = 1, chi-square likelihood ratio = 15.071, p = 0.001). New age estimates for Balkan populations are provided and are based on the calculated age distribution from the Gompertz-Makeham hazard analysis and the ages-of-transition. To estimate the age-at-death for an individual, the highest posterior density regions for each symphyseal phase are provided.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)558-568
Number of pages11
JournalJournal of Forensic Sciences
Volume53
Issue number3
DOIs
StatePublished - May 1 2008

Fingerprint

death
Balkan Peninsula
Population
Southeastern Europe
Yugoslavia
Bayes Theorem
Age Distribution
Chi-Square Distribution
New Age
age structure
deviant behavior
regression
ability

Keywords

  • Age estimation
  • Balkans
  • Bayesian statistics
  • Forensic science
  • Pubic symphysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine (miscellaneous)
  • Law

Cite this

Analysis of age-at-death estimation through the use of pubic symphyseal data. / Kimmerle, Erin H.; Konigsberg, Lyle W; Jantz, Richard L.; Baraybar, Jose Pablo.

In: Journal of Forensic Sciences, Vol. 53, No. 3, 01.05.2008, p. 558-568.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Kimmerle, Erin H. ; Konigsberg, Lyle W ; Jantz, Richard L. ; Baraybar, Jose Pablo. / Analysis of age-at-death estimation through the use of pubic symphyseal data. In: Journal of Forensic Sciences. 2008 ; Vol. 53, No. 3. pp. 558-568.
@article{01f45c76bbfa4e84b63b798b5e7e5fea,
title = "Analysis of age-at-death estimation through the use of pubic symphyseal data",
abstract = "The question of whether age parameters derived from an American population will reliably estimate age-at-death for East European skeletal populations is important since the ability to accurately estimate an individual's age-at-death hinges on what standard is used. A reference sample of identified individuals with known ages-at-death from the regions of the Former Yugoslavia (n = 861) is used to determine the age structure of victims and serves as the prior in the Bayesian analysis. Pubic symphyseal data in the manners of Todd (Am J Phys Anthropol, 3 [1920], 285; Am J Phys Anthropol, 4 [1921], 1) and Suchey-Brooks (Am J Phys Anthropol, 80 [1986], 167) were collected for n = 296 Balkan males and females and for n = 2078 American males and females. An analysis of deviance is calculated using an improvement chi-square to test for population variation in the aging processes of American and East European populations using proportional odds probit regression. When males and females are treated separately, there is a significant association among females and the population (df = 1, chi-square likelihood ratio = 15.071, p = 0.001). New age estimates for Balkan populations are provided and are based on the calculated age distribution from the Gompertz-Makeham hazard analysis and the ages-of-transition. To estimate the age-at-death for an individual, the highest posterior density regions for each symphyseal phase are provided.",
keywords = "Age estimation, Balkans, Bayesian statistics, Forensic science, Pubic symphysis",
author = "Kimmerle, {Erin H.} and Konigsberg, {Lyle W} and Jantz, {Richard L.} and Baraybar, {Jose Pablo}",
year = "2008",
month = "5",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1111/j.1556-4029.2008.00711.x",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "53",
pages = "558--568",
journal = "Journal of Forensic Sciences",
issn = "0022-1198",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "3",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Analysis of age-at-death estimation through the use of pubic symphyseal data

AU - Kimmerle, Erin H.

AU - Konigsberg, Lyle W

AU - Jantz, Richard L.

AU - Baraybar, Jose Pablo

PY - 2008/5/1

Y1 - 2008/5/1

N2 - The question of whether age parameters derived from an American population will reliably estimate age-at-death for East European skeletal populations is important since the ability to accurately estimate an individual's age-at-death hinges on what standard is used. A reference sample of identified individuals with known ages-at-death from the regions of the Former Yugoslavia (n = 861) is used to determine the age structure of victims and serves as the prior in the Bayesian analysis. Pubic symphyseal data in the manners of Todd (Am J Phys Anthropol, 3 [1920], 285; Am J Phys Anthropol, 4 [1921], 1) and Suchey-Brooks (Am J Phys Anthropol, 80 [1986], 167) were collected for n = 296 Balkan males and females and for n = 2078 American males and females. An analysis of deviance is calculated using an improvement chi-square to test for population variation in the aging processes of American and East European populations using proportional odds probit regression. When males and females are treated separately, there is a significant association among females and the population (df = 1, chi-square likelihood ratio = 15.071, p = 0.001). New age estimates for Balkan populations are provided and are based on the calculated age distribution from the Gompertz-Makeham hazard analysis and the ages-of-transition. To estimate the age-at-death for an individual, the highest posterior density regions for each symphyseal phase are provided.

AB - The question of whether age parameters derived from an American population will reliably estimate age-at-death for East European skeletal populations is important since the ability to accurately estimate an individual's age-at-death hinges on what standard is used. A reference sample of identified individuals with known ages-at-death from the regions of the Former Yugoslavia (n = 861) is used to determine the age structure of victims and serves as the prior in the Bayesian analysis. Pubic symphyseal data in the manners of Todd (Am J Phys Anthropol, 3 [1920], 285; Am J Phys Anthropol, 4 [1921], 1) and Suchey-Brooks (Am J Phys Anthropol, 80 [1986], 167) were collected for n = 296 Balkan males and females and for n = 2078 American males and females. An analysis of deviance is calculated using an improvement chi-square to test for population variation in the aging processes of American and East European populations using proportional odds probit regression. When males and females are treated separately, there is a significant association among females and the population (df = 1, chi-square likelihood ratio = 15.071, p = 0.001). New age estimates for Balkan populations are provided and are based on the calculated age distribution from the Gompertz-Makeham hazard analysis and the ages-of-transition. To estimate the age-at-death for an individual, the highest posterior density regions for each symphyseal phase are provided.

KW - Age estimation

KW - Balkans

KW - Bayesian statistics

KW - Forensic science

KW - Pubic symphysis

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=43449101903&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=43449101903&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1111/j.1556-4029.2008.00711.x

DO - 10.1111/j.1556-4029.2008.00711.x

M3 - Article

C2 - 18471198

AN - SCOPUS:43449101903

VL - 53

SP - 558

EP - 568

JO - Journal of Forensic Sciences

JF - Journal of Forensic Sciences

SN - 0022-1198

IS - 3

ER -