TY - JOUR
T1 - Analysis of a changing hydrologic flood regime using the Variable Infiltration Capacity model
AU - Park, Daeryong
AU - Markus, Momcilo
N1 - Funding Information:
This research was partially supported by the National Center for Supercomputing Applications at the University of Illinois in Urbana-Champaign. The authors would like to acknowledge the contribution of Dr. Gi-Hyeon Park from the University of Wyoming, Dr. Tom Over from USGS, and Drs. Laura Bowling and Keith Cherkauer from Purdue University for valuable advice in various stages of this research. Dr. Edward J. Hopkins, Assistant Wisconsin State Climatologist, provided valuable information on snow data monitoring, history of the gages, and quality of the observed data. The authors would also like to acknowledge the help from the following colleagues at ISWS/UIUC: Nancy Westcott and Alena Bartosova for providing very useful review comments, Lisa Sheppard for editorial review, and Sara Olson for reviewing and modifying the figures.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2014 Elsevier B.V.
PY - 2014/7/6
Y1 - 2014/7/6
N2 - The Pecatonica River and several other streams in the Wisconsin Driftless area show a decreasing trend in annual peak flows. Previous studies of the Pecatonica River detected a significant decreasing historical trend in late winter snowmelt-driven floods, while the rainfall-driven spring and summer flood peaks exhibited no significant trend during the period of record. Unlike several previous studies which attribute the decline in flood peaks mainly to changes in land management, we hypothesize that climate change had a significant contribution to the overall decrease in flood peaks. In particular, we hypothesize that the increase in winter temperatures caused the decrease in snow depth, which in turn resulted in a decreasing trend in flood peaks. In an attempt to validate this hypothesis, we used long-term daily precipitation, temperature, and river flow data observed in the watershed as inputs to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to generate other non-monitored climatic variables. Trends in these climatic variables were then related to the trend in flood peaks in the Pecatonica River. Due to the complexity of the hydrologic system and numerous data and modeling-related uncertainties, the above hypothesis cannot be validated with certainty. Nonetheless, the results in two different modes (event and continuous simulation) provide support to the speculation that the decreasing trend in flood peaks was a result of decreasing snow depth. The model runs resulted in a decrease in snow depths for the period of record (1915-2009), increase in sublimation and evaporation, no change in base flow, and mixed results in infiltration. These analyses also suggest that VIC can be used in other similar regions in snowmelt-driven flood peak studies. It should be recognized, however, that the success of these applications can be severely constrained by various uncertainties, including but not limited to, the poor quality or absence of snow depth data.
AB - The Pecatonica River and several other streams in the Wisconsin Driftless area show a decreasing trend in annual peak flows. Previous studies of the Pecatonica River detected a significant decreasing historical trend in late winter snowmelt-driven floods, while the rainfall-driven spring and summer flood peaks exhibited no significant trend during the period of record. Unlike several previous studies which attribute the decline in flood peaks mainly to changes in land management, we hypothesize that climate change had a significant contribution to the overall decrease in flood peaks. In particular, we hypothesize that the increase in winter temperatures caused the decrease in snow depth, which in turn resulted in a decreasing trend in flood peaks. In an attempt to validate this hypothesis, we used long-term daily precipitation, temperature, and river flow data observed in the watershed as inputs to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to generate other non-monitored climatic variables. Trends in these climatic variables were then related to the trend in flood peaks in the Pecatonica River. Due to the complexity of the hydrologic system and numerous data and modeling-related uncertainties, the above hypothesis cannot be validated with certainty. Nonetheless, the results in two different modes (event and continuous simulation) provide support to the speculation that the decreasing trend in flood peaks was a result of decreasing snow depth. The model runs resulted in a decrease in snow depths for the period of record (1915-2009), increase in sublimation and evaporation, no change in base flow, and mixed results in infiltration. These analyses also suggest that VIC can be used in other similar regions in snowmelt-driven flood peak studies. It should be recognized, however, that the success of these applications can be severely constrained by various uncertainties, including but not limited to, the poor quality or absence of snow depth data.
KW - Climate change
KW - Flood frequency
KW - Hydrologic change
KW - Snow hydrology
KW - VIC model
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84945173658&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84945173658&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.004
DO - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.05.004
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:84945173658
SN - 0022-1694
VL - 515
SP - 267
EP - 280
JO - Journal of Hydrology
JF - Journal of Hydrology
ER -