Analyses of new short-lived replacements for HFCs with large GWPs

In this study, we examine the atmospheric lifetimes and Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) for six short-lived potential ozone-depleting substances and high-GWP hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) replacement compounds and evaluate the potential reduced effects on climate forcing from adopting such compounds. We also examine the potential effects on climate from widespread use of these chemicals. The atmospheric lifetimes of these compounds are each less than 1 month and their 100 year GWPs range from 0.9 to 4.6. The derived GWPs are substantially lower than those in prior published studies, which used simplified estimation techniques that overestimate the GWPs for these short-lived compounds by 61% to 237%. If long-lived HFCs are completely replaced with these substitute compounds, radiative forcing of these short-lived compounds in 2050 will be 0.26 to 0.80 mW m^-2, a factor of as much as 1000 smaller than would be the case with the potential growth in the use of the HFCs. Key Points Simple GWP estimates overestimate GWPs 2050 RFs of HFC replacements is up to 1000 times less than the HFCs