@article{1d73428e294045a89199e583f22ccecb,
title = "Analyses for High-Resolution Projections Through the End of the 21st Century for Precipitation Extremes Over the United States",
abstract = "This study compares an ensemble of dynamically downscaled projections of extreme daily precipitation over the contiguous United States (CONUS). With a grid spacing of 12 km and a domain that encompasses most of North America, we use the Weather Research and Forecast model as a regional climate model. We incorporate initial and boundary conditions from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Earth system models (ESMs). We focus on precipitation extremes in the future climate (2045–2054 and 2085–2094) by comparing a business-as-usual high-emissions scenario to emissions from a historical period (1995–2004). In the historical period, the Weather Research and Forecasting-downscaled simulations result in significant improvements over the ESMs for precipitation extremes. In the analyses of future climate, there is a large increase in the projected frequency of extreme precipitation events over the entire CONUS and a decrease in median precipitation days. Moreover, most regions show an increase in the number of dry days in the future scenarios. The magnitude of extreme precipitation events is projected to increase in the CONUS at all temperatures above freezing. The strongest precipitation events will increase in intensity, primarily because of a shift in precipitation distribution due to the increase in near-surface air temperatures (Clausius-Claperyon relationship). However, these events are also affected by changes in some atmospheric dynamical factors, such as stronger low level jet, especially over the Midwestern United States. In addition, compared to those calculated by the ESMs, the downscaled projections show important regional differences in the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events.",
keywords = "United States, climate, downscaling, extreme precipitation",
author = "Zachary Zobel and Jiali Wang and Wuebbles, {Donald J.} and Kotamarthi, {V. Rao}",
note = "Funding Information: This work is supported under a military interdepartmental purchase request from the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, RC-2242, through the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) contract DE-AC02-06CH11357. The NARR data (in NetCDF format) are provided by the NOAA-ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, Colorado, at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd. The GCM data were downloaded from https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/home.htm. Computational resources are provided by the DOE-supported Argonne Leadership Computing Facility, the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, and National Center for Supercomputing Applications Blue Waters Supercomputer. Due to the large size of the files (approximately 450 GB), all model outputs generated by this study are available by contacting the authors; a sample of these model outputs can be found at https://figshare.com/s/813e756ad92b2a50b594. Funding Information: This work is supported under a military interdepartmental purchase request from the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, RC-2242, through the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) contract DE-AC02- 06CH11357. The NARR data (in NetCDF format) are provided by the NOAA-ESRL Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, Colorado, at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/ psd. The GCM data were downloaded from https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/ home.htm. Computational resources are provided by the DOE-supported Argonne Leadership Computing Facility, the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center, and National Center for Supercomputing Applications Blue Waters Supercomputer. Due to the large size of the files (approximately 450 GB), all model outputs generated by this study are available by contacting the authors; a sample of these model outputs can be found at https://figshare.com/s/ 813e756ad92b2a50b594. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright}2018. The Authors.",
year = "2018",
month = oct,
doi = "10.1029/2018EF000956",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "6",
pages = "1471--1490",
journal = "Earth's Future",
issn = "2328-4277",
publisher = "John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.",
number = "10",
}