An empirical model of urban fringe land use

D. P. McMillen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


This paper offers an empirical model of land use in an urban fringe area of Chicago, McHenry County, that directly predicts land use. Three land uses are considered: agricultural, residential, and vacant. A multinomial logit model is estimated; the purpose of the model is to determine the probability that a property was in a given use at the time of sale. Explanatory variables include the size of the property, distances from Chicago and nearby smaller towns, and characteristics of the quarter-section in which the property is located. The model does not predict vacant and agricultural land use as accurately as residential, but does outperform a naive, equal-probability model. The model provides some interesting results. -from Author

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)138-145
Number of pages8
JournalLand Economics
Issue number2
StatePublished - 1989

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Science (miscellaneous)
  • Economics and Econometrics


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