TY - JOUR
T1 - An econometric analysis of changes in arable land utilization using multinomial logit model in Pinggu district, Beijing, China
AU - Xu, Yueqing
AU - McNamara, Paul
AU - Wu, Yanfang
AU - Dong, Yue
N1 - This research was supported by the Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41171088 ) and the Chinese Universities Scientific Fund Project (No. 2011JS162 ).
PY - 2013/10/5
Y1 - 2013/10/5
N2 - Arable land in China has been decreasing as a result of rapid population growth and economic development as well as urban expansion, especially in developed regions around cities where quality farmland quickly disappears. This paper analyzed changes in arable land utilization during 1993-2008 in the Pinggu district, Beijing, China, developed a multinomial logit (MNL) model to determine spatial driving factors influencing arable land-use change, and simulated arable land transition probabilities. Land-use maps, as well as social-economic and geographical data were used in the study. The results indicated that arable land decreased significantly between 1993 and 2008. Lost arable land shifted into orchard, forestland, settlement, and transportation land. Significant differences existed for arable land transitions among different landform areas. Slope, elevation, population density, urbanization rate, distance to settlements, and distance to roadways were strong drivers influencing arable land transition to other uses. The MNL model was proved effective for predicting transition probabilities in land use from arable land to other land-use types, thus can be used for scenario analysis to develop land-use policies and land-management measures in this metropolitan area.
AB - Arable land in China has been decreasing as a result of rapid population growth and economic development as well as urban expansion, especially in developed regions around cities where quality farmland quickly disappears. This paper analyzed changes in arable land utilization during 1993-2008 in the Pinggu district, Beijing, China, developed a multinomial logit (MNL) model to determine spatial driving factors influencing arable land-use change, and simulated arable land transition probabilities. Land-use maps, as well as social-economic and geographical data were used in the study. The results indicated that arable land decreased significantly between 1993 and 2008. Lost arable land shifted into orchard, forestland, settlement, and transportation land. Significant differences existed for arable land transitions among different landform areas. Slope, elevation, population density, urbanization rate, distance to settlements, and distance to roadways were strong drivers influencing arable land transition to other uses. The MNL model was proved effective for predicting transition probabilities in land use from arable land to other land-use types, thus can be used for scenario analysis to develop land-use policies and land-management measures in this metropolitan area.
KW - Arable land
KW - Dynamic change
KW - Econometric model
KW - Pinggu district of Beijing
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84879198948&partnerID=8YFLogxK
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U2 - 10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.05.020
DO - 10.1016/j.jenvman.2013.05.020
M3 - Article
C2 - 23774750
AN - SCOPUS:84879198948
SN - 0301-4797
VL - 128
SP - 324
EP - 334
JO - Journal of Environmental Management
JF - Journal of Environmental Management
ER -