An econometric analysis of changes in arable land utilization using multinomial logit model in Pinggu district, Beijing, China

Yueqing Xu, Paul McNamara, Yanfang Wu, Yue Dong

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Arable land in China has been decreasing as a result of rapid population growth and economic development as well as urban expansion, especially in developed regions around cities where quality farmland quickly disappears. This paper analyzed changes in arable land utilization during 1993-2008 in the Pinggu district, Beijing, China, developed a multinomial logit (MNL) model to determine spatial driving factors influencing arable land-use change, and simulated arable land transition probabilities. Land-use maps, as well as social-economic and geographical data were used in the study. The results indicated that arable land decreased significantly between 1993 and 2008. Lost arable land shifted into orchard, forestland, settlement, and transportation land. Significant differences existed for arable land transitions among different landform areas. Slope, elevation, population density, urbanization rate, distance to settlements, and distance to roadways were strong drivers influencing arable land transition to other uses. The MNL model was proved effective for predicting transition probabilities in land use from arable land to other land-use types, thus can be used for scenario analysis to develop land-use policies and land-management measures in this metropolitan area.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)324-334
Number of pages11
JournalJournal of Environmental Management
Volume128
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 5 2013

Keywords

  • Arable land
  • Dynamic change
  • Econometric model
  • Pinggu district of Beijing

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Engineering
  • Waste Management and Disposal
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

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