TY - JOUR
T1 - Aid under fire
T2 - Development projects and civil conflict
AU - Crost, Benjamin
AU - Felter, Joseph
AU - Johnston, Patrick
PY - 2014/6
Y1 - 2014/6
N2 - We estimate the causal effect of a large development program on conflict in the Philippines through a regression discontinuity design that exploits an arbitrary poverty threshold used to assign eligibility for the program. We find that barely eligible municipalities experienced a large increase in conflict casualties compared to barely ineligible ones. This increase is mostly due to insurgent-initiated incidents in the early stages of program preparation. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that insurgents try to sabotage the program because its success would weaken their support in the population. (JEL D74, F35, I32, I38, O15, O17, O18, O19).
AB - We estimate the causal effect of a large development program on conflict in the Philippines through a regression discontinuity design that exploits an arbitrary poverty threshold used to assign eligibility for the program. We find that barely eligible municipalities experienced a large increase in conflict casualties compared to barely ineligible ones. This increase is mostly due to insurgent-initiated incidents in the early stages of program preparation. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that insurgents try to sabotage the program because its success would weaken their support in the population. (JEL D74, F35, I32, I38, O15, O17, O18, O19).
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84897683030&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84897683030&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1257/aer.104.6.1833
DO - 10.1257/aer.104.6.1833
M3 - Review article
AN - SCOPUS:84897683030
SN - 0002-8282
VL - 104
SP - 1833
EP - 1856
JO - American Economic Review
JF - American Economic Review
IS - 6
ER -