Adoption of high yielding rice varieties in Bangladesh. An econometric analysis

In this paper we build two logistic type econometric models to explain HYRV diffusion rate in Bangladesh. Long-run potentials (ceiling), diffusion rates, and the effects of other economic variables on the adoption path are determined simultaneously within the model. Results from our final model indicate that the diffusion rate is not constant over time. Furthermore, rate and level of adoption are found to be influenced by flood damage, jute-rice price ratio and HYRV-local rice variety price ratio. An important outcome of our analysis is that the ceiling adoption level for Bangladesh has nearly been reached. Unless new HYRVs are developed with wider adaptability, especially for drought and flood prone areas, little scope exists for production increases through HYRV acreage expansion. This conclusion has significant policy implications for agricultural planners and development agents in Bangladesh.