TY - JOUR
T1 - A stochastic model of preference change and its application to 1992 presidential election panel data
AU - Regenwetter, Michel
AU - Falmagne, Jean Claude
AU - Grofman, Bernard
N1 - Copyright:
Copyright 2018 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 1999/4
Y1 - 1999/4
N2 - The authors present and test a model for the evolution of preferences. Personal preferences are represented by rankings with possible ties and are posited to change under the influence of "tokens" of information in the environment. These tokens may not be directly controlled or observed by the researcher. The authors apply the model to 1992 National Election Study panel data (W. E. Miller, D. R. Kinder, S. J. Rosenstone, & NES, 1993). The parameter estimates suggest that negative campaigning played a major role in the information flow. Democrats and Republicans experienced a barrage of contradicting information about Perot; Democrats, Republicans, and Independents each received or perceived different information. A shift in the perception of the candidates led the Republicans to evaluate Bush and Perot less favorably after the election. These results demonstrate the model's potential to analyze persuasion as a real-time stochastic process and without a media content analysis.
AB - The authors present and test a model for the evolution of preferences. Personal preferences are represented by rankings with possible ties and are posited to change under the influence of "tokens" of information in the environment. These tokens may not be directly controlled or observed by the researcher. The authors apply the model to 1992 National Election Study panel data (W. E. Miller, D. R. Kinder, S. J. Rosenstone, & NES, 1993). The parameter estimates suggest that negative campaigning played a major role in the information flow. Democrats and Republicans experienced a barrage of contradicting information about Perot; Democrats, Republicans, and Independents each received or perceived different information. A shift in the perception of the candidates led the Republicans to evaluate Bush and Perot less favorably after the election. These results demonstrate the model's potential to analyze persuasion as a real-time stochastic process and without a media content analysis.
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U2 - 10.1037/0033-295X.106.2.362
DO - 10.1037/0033-295X.106.2.362
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:0008297937
SN - 0033-295X
VL - 106
SP - 362
EP - 384
JO - Psychological review
JF - Psychological review
IS - 2
ER -