A new approach for probability of failure analysis with distributed failure regions

Pingfeng Wang, Xiaolong Cui

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution


Failure of practical engineering systems could be induced by several correlated failure modes, and consequently reliability analysis are conducted with multiple distributed failure regions in the system random input space. Problems with distributed failure regions create a great challenge for existing reliability analysis approaches due to the discontinuity of the system performance function between these regions. This paper presents a new enhanced Monte Carlo simulation (EMCS) approach for reliability analysis and design considering distributed failure regions. The ordinary Kriging method is adopted to construct surrogate model for the performance function so that Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) can be used to estimate the reliability. A maximum failure potential based sampling scheme is developed to iteratively search failure samples and update the Kriging model. Two case studies are used to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methodology.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publication18th AIAA Non-Deterministic Approaches Conference
PublisherAmerican Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Inc, AIAA
ISBN (Print)9781624103971
StatePublished - 2016
Externally publishedYes
Event18th AIAA Non-Deterministic Approaches Conference, 2016 - San Diego, United States
Duration: Jan 4 2016Jan 8 2016

Publication series

Name18th AIAA Non-Deterministic Approaches Conference


Other18th AIAA Non-Deterministic Approaches Conference, 2016
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CitySan Diego

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Mechanics of Materials
  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Building and Construction
  • Architecture


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