A maximum confidence enhancement based sequential sampling scheme for simulation-based design

Zequn Wang, Pingfeng Wang

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

This paper presents a maximum confidence enhancement based sequential sampling approach for simulation-based design under uncertainty. In the proposed approach, the ordinary Kriging method is adopted to construct surrogate models for all constraints and thus Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is able to be used to estimate reliability and its sensitivity with respect to design variables. A cumulative confidence level is defined to quantify the accuracy of reliability estimation using MCS based on the Kriging models. To improve the efficiency of proposed approach, a maximum confidence enhancement based sequential sampling scheme is developed to update the Kriging models based on the maximum improvement of the defined cumulative confidence level, in which a sample that produces the largest improvement of the cumulative confidence level is selected to update the surrogate models. Moreover, a new design sensitivity estimation approach based upon constructed Kriging models is developed to estimate the reliability sensitivity information with respect to design variables without incurring any extra function evaluations. This enables to compute smooth sensitivity values and thus greatly enhances the efficiency and robustness of the design optimization process. Two case studies are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publication39th Design Automation Conference
PublisherAmerican Society of Mechanical Engineers
ISBN (Print)9780791855898
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2013
Externally publishedYes
EventASME 2013 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, IDETC/CIE 2013 - Portland, OR, United States
Duration: Aug 4 2013Aug 7 2013

Publication series

NameProceedings of the ASME Design Engineering Technical Conference
Volume3 B

Other

OtherASME 2013 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, IDETC/CIE 2013
CountryUnited States
CityPortland, OR
Period8/4/138/7/13

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Mechanical Engineering
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Computer Graphics and Computer-Aided Design

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  • Cite this

    Wang, Z., & Wang, P. (2013). A maximum confidence enhancement based sequential sampling scheme for simulation-based design. In 39th Design Automation Conference [V03BT03A052] (Proceedings of the ASME Design Engineering Technical Conference; Vol. 3 B). American Society of Mechanical Engineers. https://doi.org/10.1115/DETC2013-12608