A Hydrologic Data Screening Procedure for Exploring Monotonic Trends and Shifts in Rainfall and Runoff Patterns

Ma Librada Chu, Abduwasiti Ghulam, Jason H. Knouft, Zaitao Pan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

A thorough understanding of past and present hydrologic responses to changes in precipitation patterns is crucial for predicting future conditions. The main objectives of this study were to determine temporal changes in rainfall-runoff relationship and to identify significant trends and abrupt shifts in rainfall and runoff time series. Ninety-year rainfall and runoff time series datasets from the Gasconade and Meramec watersheds in east-central Missouri were used to develop data screening procedure to assess changes in the rainfall and runoff temporal patterns. A statistically significant change in mean and variance was detected in 1980 in the rainfall and runoff time series within both watersheds. In addition, both the rainfall and runoff time series indicated the presence of nonstationary attributes such as statistically significant monotonic trends and/or change in mean and variance, which should be taken into consideration when using the time series to predict future scenarios. The annual peak runoff and the annual low flow in the Meramec watershed showed significant temporal changes compared to that in the Gasconade watershed. Water loss in both watersheds was found to be significantly increasing which is potentially due to the increase in groundwater pumping for water supply purposes.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)928-942
Number of pages15
JournalJournal of the American Water Resources Association
Volume50
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 2014
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Homogeneity and consistency
  • Hydrologic screening
  • Rainfall-runoff relationship
  • Time series analysis
  • Trend detection

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Ecology
  • Water Science and Technology
  • Earth-Surface Processes

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