A Framework to Assess Risk of Illicit Trades Using Bayesian Belief Networks

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Recent years have seen the initiatives against illicit trades gain significant traction at both national and global levels. A crucial component in this fight is correct assessment of the risks posed by different trades across different regions. To aid in this cause, we provide a risk prediction framework based on Bayesian Belief Networks. It involves the development of a causal model incorporating variables related to the rise/decline of the illicit trade volume. The influence of these variables are determined by training on available data that are allowed to update over time. Implementation on a sample case study shows relatively low prediction accuracy of our model. Factors constraining its performance are analyzed and possible ways to avert them are discussed. We expect this framework to act as a decision support tool to the policymakers and strengthen them in the fight against illicit trades.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationAdvances in Production Management Systems. Artificial Intelligence for Sustainable and Resilient Production Systems - IFIP WG 5.7 International Conference, APMS 2021, Proceedings
EditorsAlexandre Dolgui, Alain Bernard, David Lemoine, Gregor von Cieminski, David Romero
PublisherSpringer
Pages504-513
Number of pages10
ISBN (Print)9783030859138
DOIs
StatePublished - 2021
EventIFIP WG 5.7 International Conference on Advances in Production Management Systems, APMS 2021 - Nantes, France
Duration: Sep 5 2021Sep 9 2021

Publication series

NameIFIP Advances in Information and Communication Technology
Volume634 IFIP
ISSN (Print)1868-4238
ISSN (Electronic)1868-422X

Conference

ConferenceIFIP WG 5.7 International Conference on Advances in Production Management Systems, APMS 2021
Country/TerritoryFrance
CityNantes
Period9/5/219/9/21

Keywords

  • Bayesian Belief Networks
  • Illicit trade
  • Risk assessment

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Information Systems
  • Computer Networks and Communications
  • Information Systems and Management

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