A day-night population exchange model for better exposure and consequence management assessments

Timothy N. McPherson, Johnathan Forrest Rush, Hari Khalsa, Austin Ivey, Michael J. Brown

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

In this research, we have presented a model that routs people from home to work at the aggregate level of a census tract. These data are used in conjunction with a day-night population data model to define the populated impacted by an event such a chemical release, to track the exposed population probable spatial distribution in the subsequent 12 hour period, and to rout them to hospital once symptoms may be presented. This capability is useful for studying airborne contaminants that have delayed health effects or are contagious. For these cases, determining the population within the contaminant plume is just the first step; knowing where the dosed population ends up 12 hours later may be just as important from a consequence management perspective. For example, contagious agents with a considerable latency period will not cause an immediate impact on the exposed population. In those cases, the impact of the event will not be seen until exposed populations become ill and begin showing up at hospitals. The model was shown to be of possible value to decision makers who need information on the projected impact on hospitals, how a disease might spread, or where to distribute medical supplies.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publication86th AMS Annual Meeting
StatePublished - 2006
Externally publishedYes
Event86th AMS Annual Meeting - Atlanta, GA, United States
Duration: Jan 29 2006Feb 2 2006

Other

Other86th AMS Annual Meeting
CountryUnited States
CityAtlanta, GA
Period1/29/062/2/06

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Environmental Engineering
  • Global and Planetary Change
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

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