A copula based sampling method for residual life prediction of engineering systems under uncertainty

Zhimin Xi, Pingfeng Wang

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

The success of health prognostics of engineering systems will allow engineers to shift the traditional breakdown and time based maintenance to the state-of-Art predictive and conditionbased maintenance. Performing the right type of maintenance activity at the right time will minimize maintenance costs and the downtime of engineering systems. However, techniques and methodologies for health prognostics are typically applicationspecific. This paper aims at developing a generic real time sensor-based prognostic methodology for predicting residual life of engineering systems by modeling explicit relationship between the failure time and the time realizations at different degradation levels. Specifically, a Copula based sampling method is proposed with four technical components for off-line training and on-line life prediction. First of all, degradation signals are pre-processed to have non-decreasing degradation data sets. Next, degradation data sets are dicretized into a certain number of degradation levels with associated time realizations. Then, explicit statistical dependence modeling between the failure time and the time realizations at different degradation levels is conducted using the Bayesian Copula approach and the semi-Copula model. Finally, probability density function of the failure time and the residual life are efficiently predicted using the sampling method provided that we know some true time realizations at a certain number of degradation levels. Residual life predictions of electric cooling fans are employed to demonstrate the proposed method.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationASME 2012 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, IDETC/CIE 2012
Pages361-368
Number of pages8
EditionPARTS A AND B
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 1 2012
Externally publishedYes
EventASME 2012 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, IDETC/CIE 2012 - Chicago, IL, United States
Duration: Aug 12 2012Aug 12 2012

Publication series

NameProceedings of the ASME Design Engineering Technical Conference
NumberPARTS A AND B
Volume3

Other

OtherASME 2012 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, IDETC/CIE 2012
CountryUnited States
CityChicago, IL
Period8/12/128/12/12

Keywords

  • Copula
  • Degradation signal
  • Prognostics
  • Residual life

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Mechanical Engineering
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Computer Graphics and Computer-Aided Design

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  • Cite this

    Xi, Z., & Wang, P. (2012). A copula based sampling method for residual life prediction of engineering systems under uncertainty. In ASME 2012 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, IDETC/CIE 2012 (PARTS A AND B ed., pp. 361-368). (Proceedings of the ASME Design Engineering Technical Conference; Vol. 3, No. PARTS A AND B). https://doi.org/10.1115/DETC2012-71105