A Copula based sampling method for residual life prediction of engineering systems under uncertainty

Zhimin Xi, Pingfeng Wang

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Successful health prognostics of engineering systems will allow engineers to shift the traditional breakdown and time based maintenance to the state-of-art predictive and condition-based maintenance. Performing the right type of maintenance activity at the right time will minimize maintenance costs and the downtime of engineering systems. However, techniques and methodologies for health prognostics are typically application-specific. This paper aims at developing a generic real time sensor-based prognostic methodology for predicting residual life of engineering systems by modeling explicit relationship between the failure time and the time realizations at different degradation levels. Specifically, a Copula based sampling method is proposed with four technical components for off-line training and on-line life prediction. First of all, degradation signals are pre-processed to have non-decreasing degradation data sets. Next, degradation data sets are dicretized into a certain number of degradation levels with associated time realizations. Then, explicit statistical dependence modeling between the failure time and the time realizations at different degradation levels is conducted using the Bayesian Copula approach and the semi-Copula model. Finally, probability density function of the failure time and the residual life are efficiently predicted using the sampling method provided that we know some true time realizations at a certain number of degradation levels. Residual life predictions of electric cooling fans are employed to demonstrate the proposed method.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationPHM 2012 - 2012 IEEE Int. Conf. on Prognostics and Health Management:Enhancing Safety, Efficiency, Availability, and Effectiveness of Systems Through PHM Technology and Application,Conference Program
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 6 2012
Externally publishedYes
Event2012 IEEE International Conference on Prognostics and Health Management: Enhancing Safety, Efficiency, Availability, and Effectiveness of Systems Through PHM Technology and Application, PHM 2012 - Denver, CO, United States
Duration: Jun 18 2012Jun 21 2012

Publication series

NamePHM 2012 - 2012 IEEE Int. Conf.on Prognostics and Health Management: Enhancing Safety, Efficiency, Availability, and Effectiveness of Systems Through PHM Technology and Application, Conference Program

Other

Other2012 IEEE International Conference on Prognostics and Health Management: Enhancing Safety, Efficiency, Availability, and Effectiveness of Systems Through PHM Technology and Application, PHM 2012
CountryUnited States
CityDenver, CO
Period6/18/126/21/12

Keywords

  • Copula
  • degradation signal
  • prognostics
  • residual life

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computational Theory and Mathematics
  • Biomedical Engineering
  • Mathematical Physics

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