A confidence-based adaptive sampling approach for dynamic reliability analysis

Zequn Wang, Pingfeng Wang

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Dynamic reliability is defined as the probability that an engineered system successfully performs the predefined functionality over a certain period of time considering timevariant operation condition and component deterioration. In practice, it is still a major challenge to conduce dynamic reliability analysis due to the prohibitively high computational costs. In this study, a confidence-based meta-modeling approach is proposed for efficient sensitivity-free dynamic reliability analysis, referred to as double-loop adaptive sampling (DLAS). In DLAS a Gaussian process (GP) model is constructed to approximate extreme system responses over time, so that Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) can be employed directly to estimate dynamic reliability. A qualitative confidence measure is proposed to evaluate the accuracy of dynamic reliability estimation while using the MCS approach based on developed GP models. To improve the confidence, a double-loop adaptive sampling scheme is developed to efficiently update the GP model in a sequential manner, by considering system input variables and time concurrently in double sampling loops. The model updating process can be terminated once the user defined confidence target is satisfied. The DLAS approach does not require computationally expensive sensitivity analysis, thus substantially improves the efficiency of dynamic reliability assessment. Two case studies are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of DLAS for dynamic reliability analysis.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publication40th Design Automation Conference
PublisherAmerican Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME)
ISBN (Electronic)9780791846322
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2014
Externally publishedYes
EventASME 2014 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, IDETC/CIE 2014 - Buffalo, United States
Duration: Aug 17 2014Aug 20 2014

Publication series

NameProceedings of the ASME Design Engineering Technical Conference
Volume2B

Other

OtherASME 2014 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences and Computers and Information in Engineering Conference, IDETC/CIE 2014
CountryUnited States
CityBuffalo
Period8/17/148/20/14

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Modeling and Simulation
  • Mechanical Engineering
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Computer Graphics and Computer-Aided Design

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